Biden or Trump? Baldwin or Hovde? In Wisconsin right now, it's anyone's guess (2024)

With less than seven months until the 2024 election, Wisconsin’s status as a purple state remains evidently clear — with the battleground state’s presidential and U.S. Senate races appearing nearly deadlocked, a Marquette Law School Poll released Wednesday shows.

The poll is Marquette Law School’s first since Eric Hovde, a Republican businessman from Madison, entered the race for the seat currently held by U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who is seeking a third term in November.

Baldwin, D-Madison, holds a narrow lead over Hovde among registered voters, with 52% compared with Hovde’s 47%. The race is evenly split among likely voters, with both candidates receiving 50%.

The poll also underscores the neck-and-neck matchup between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump in the state. Wednesday’s poll showed 51% of respondents — including both registered and likely voters — backed the Republican Trump, while 49% supported the Democratic Biden, well within the poll’s 4.8% margin of error.

Polling in early November found Biden receiving support from 50% of respondents, compared with 48% for Trump. In February, polling was deadlocked in Wisconsin with both candidates receiving 49%.

“There’s been a slight move in Trump’s direction,” poll director Charles Franklin said. “The amount of change you see here is totally within the margin of error. Let’s not get carried way with a 1-point smidgen of a difference.”

Hovde’s campaign spokesperson Ben Voelkel said the latest poll underscores voter dissatisfaction over issues ranging from the economy to immigration and border security.

“Wisconsinites are ready for a change,” Voelkel said in a statement. “This race is a dead heat and we are just getting going.”

Wednesday’s poll, conducted by phone and online April 3-10, surveyed 814 registered voters.

In 2020, Biden defeated Trump by 20,682 votes, while Trump won the state in 2016 by securing 22,748 more votes than Democratic challenger Hillary Clinton.

Voter enthusiasm gap

As previous surveys have shown, Wednesday’s poll continues to underscore an overall lack of enthusiasm among Wisconsin voters heading toward November.

Only 47% of registered voters said they are very enthusiastic to vote this fall, compared with 67% of voters at this time in 2020.

Trump continues to hold the edge in that category, with 59% of those very enthusiastic to vote backing the former president, compared with 41% for Biden. Among those somewhat enthusiastic, 55% back Trump while 45% support Biden.

“The people who are very enthusiastic to vote are very substantially Trump voters,” Franklin said.

Biden’s strength among those less enthusiastic to vote remains strong, however, with 64% of those not too enthusiastic and 62% of those not at all enthusiastic supporting Biden, compared with 36% and 37% for Trump, respectively.

“I think this is a pattern that we have been seeing for a while, that Biden supporters, or would-be supporters, aren’t super excited about that, but they seem to still prefer him and would be likely to vote for him, if they vote,” Franklin said.

Third-party candidates

One big question surrounding the upcoming presidential election relates to how many voters third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein and Cornel West will pull from either major political party if they remain in the race this fall.

In a five-way matchup, Wednesday’s poll found 41% of registered voters supporting Trump, 40% backing Biden, 13% for Kennedy, and Stein and West receiving 3% and 2%, respectively.

Broken down by party, Kennedy received support from 13% of Republican registered voters, compared with 8% of Democratic voters. Among independent voters, both Trump and Kennedy were backed by 32%, while Biden was supported by 23%.

“There’s been a lot of chatter, punditry about who does Kennedy hurt more?” Franklin said. “Our polling both here in the state and our national polling has been quite consistent in showing … that Kennedy is taking a few percentage points more from Republican voters than from Democratic voters.”

Stein was backed by 4% of Democratic voters and 3% of Republican voters, while West pulled support from 2% of Democratic voters.

Franklin said third-party candidate trends will be worth keeping an eye on as the election nears, due in large part to Wisconsin’s notoriously narrow statewide margins.

Split on major issues

Among registered voters, 33% said the economy is the most important issue facing the county, while immigration and border security came in second with 21%. Abortion policy, a major Democratic talking point since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in the summer of 2022, was the top issue for 13% of respondents.

Broken down by party, only 1% of Democratic voters say immigration and border security is the most important issue, compared with 37% of Republicans.

Abortion is the top issue among Democratic voters at 24%, followed by the economy at 22% and Medicare and Social Security at 19%.

The economy is the top issue for Republican voters at 43%, followed by immigration. Abortion policy was a distant third, with only 5% saying it was the most important issue.

Among independent voters, 31% said the economy is the top issue, followed by immigration with 23%. Abortion was the top issue among just 5% of those voters.